The global aviation sector will significantly overshoot its mid-term carbon emissions targets, according to the latest forecasts from consultancy ICF International.
In a new white paper, ICF argues that in 2023 the sector will be producing more than 1.1bn tonnes of CO2, 23 per cent more than the IATA’s target of 942m tonnes.
Furthermore, ICF’s calculations incorporate CO2 mitigating factors assuming a five per cent improvement in fuel efficiency across the global fleet – generated by new aircraft and retrofits – and a three per cent cut in CO2 as a result of increased use of biofuels.
The report concludes that the 220m tonne shortfall will have to be met through offsetting schemes. “Offsets from cheaper carbon reductions in other industries are likely the most cost-effective way to close this gap,” it states.