Engine Demand Over The Next Decade

Segment will account for the lion's share of aftermarket activity from 2019 to 2028.

Engine aftermarket demand is valued at $300 billion over the next 10 years, according to Aviation Week’s 2019 Fleet & MRO Forecast.

This will account for more than a third of total MRO demand over the same period, while within the engine segment most work will focus on the maturing options in the narrowbody fleet: the CFM56 and V2500 families.

That will be the case despite declining numbers of both engine types as CFM LEAP and PW1000G engines take their place. Over the next 10 years CFM56 and V2500 numbers will fall at annualised rates of 3.8% and 3.5% respectively, Aviation Week forecasts. In contrast, by 2028 there are expected to be 24,000 LEAP-family engines in service.

In Latin America retirements are expected to peak in 2023, when an estimated 285 current-generation engines are predicted to be retired by operators. For the industry as a whole, the peak is anticipated a year later in 2024, when a total of 2,939 units are expected be leave the market.

The smaller turboprop engine segment will continue to be dominated by Pratt & Whitney Canada and its PW100 engine. Manufacturing the powerplant for dominant turboprop aircraft players ATR and Bombardier while operating in a market with no new entrants, the PW100’s 5,000 in-service engines will gradually grow over 10 years to reach 5,700 units by 2028. Having first entered service in 1984, the engine’s longevity is generated primarily by Asia-Pacific, with other strong markets in North America and Africa, with the latter seeing a steady demand for Bombardier Q400 turboprops.

To find you more about the engine delivery market and aftermarket over the next 10 years, see the forthcoming Engine Yearbook 2019.

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