In 2020 the CFM56 and IAE V2500 will account for almost 29,000 in-service engines – with almost four CFM56s for every V2500 – according to Aviation Week Fleet & Data Services’ 2020 forecast.
Thereafter their combined numbers will decline by about 4% per year until 2029, when there will be roughly 19,000 in service.
Of course, that’s still a massive population – one that will support huge maintenance spend for many years to come. Aviation Week predicts that CFM56 maintenance demand will peak at $11.9 billion in 2024, having risen from $9.7 billion in 2020. In 2029 it will have fallen only to $8.8 billion. Almost the entirety of that value across the decade is in support of the CFM56-5 and -7 models.
The V2500 follows a similar trajectory, with its annual maintenance demand rising from $3.2 billion in 2020 to a high of $4 billion in 2023, and then falling to roughly $2.7 billion by 2029.
CFM56 numbers will decline as the CFM LEAP replaces it on Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 platforms over the next decade. Aviation Week predicts that LEAP numbers will grow by roughly 20% per year, from roughly 5,000 in 2020 to reach 27,000 in 2029. A 19% annual growth rate is forecast for Pratt & Whitney’s PW1000G family, which is set to rise from roughly 2,250 in-service engines in 2020 to almost 11,000 by 2029.
In 2026 the LEAP population is expected to have overtaken the number of in-service CFM56s, while the PW1000G family will overtake the V2500 in 2024.
With the LEAP and PW1000G expected to have similar or better reliability than current-technology equipment, it will be many years before their maintenance markets achieve significant size. Aviation Week estimates that LEAP family engine maintenance will still be worth less than $500 million in 2026, before rising steadily to about $3 billion in 2029.
However, the PW1000G family, which is present on more varied aircraft types and entered service earlier, will follow a different demand trajectory. Its maintenance market is set to be worth about $650 million in 2026 – more than that for the larger population of LEAPs – and $3.2 billion in 2029. In between it will plateau at about $1.3 billion from 2027-2028.
For a full analysis of engine fleet changes and MRO spend over the next decade, see the forthcoming Engine Yearbook 2020.