The total commercial avionics market will reach $29.3 billion by 2021 and $31.7 billion by 2024, up from $25.3 billion in 2016, according to Transparency Market Research.
Avionics retrofits account for about 47% of this market in terms of revenue, with line-fit avionics representing 53%, notes Research Analyst Rohan Nath. That would make avionics retrofit spending alone more than $120 billion over the next eight years.
One reason for strong growth is advancing technologies, such as glass cockpits, and intense demand for real-time data analytics, especially in North America and Europe. “The impact of this driver is expected to remain very high for the coming years," Nath says. New programs like FAA’s NextGen are also driving adoption of new systems.
One hurdle to installation of new avionics has been fear of cyber-attacks. “The high need for internet connectivity for commercial avionics systems allows for a greater window of opportunity for malicious activities,” Nath explains. “This scare has especially been restrictive for developed economies after aviation industry-based terrorist attacks that have occurred in the past two decades.”
Nath expects competition in avionics to intensify. He points out that the industry is extremely concentrated at present, as four firms, Honeywell, Rockwell Collins, Thales and Garmin, held 77% of in revenue in 2015.